Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."